Preparing for the State of the Union
By Chad A. B. Wilson
Published January 23, 2007, 1:38 pm in News, Voting & Partisanship.
There is nothing I love more than the State of the Union address. No, this isn't another ironic post. I truly love the State of the Union address, probably more than any other political event. I enjoy the elections, too, but there's too much at stake there, and I tend to get upset. With the State of the Union address, there's nothing to lose. The guy's already in office, so the fate of our nation has nothing to do with the State of the Union.
The State of the Union address is not a policy change. In general, Presidents do not introduce policy at the State of the Union. If they do, it is minor policy changes or dreams about what may happen, such as that the U.S. will fight global warming or will have secure borders. But there's nothing really new there. Rather, the State of the Union address is meant to do just that--discuss the state of the union. What's going on? What has happened? What does the future hold? What are the issues we should look to? It's kind of like a pep rally for the U.S., and I always enjoyed pep rallies. The difference is that I couldn't care less whether my high school team won or lost. The similarity is that I enjoyed watching the spectacle.
And that's reallly what I look for--spectacle.
I like to watch who stands at what phrase, and who the media chooses to show standing or not standing at specific phrases the President uses. That's the fun part.
Policy Shifts? Rhetorical Shifts?
Now don't get me wrong. I will usually read the speech afterward, too. I like to know what the president says, for there are lots of clues embedded in these speeches. They are truly rhetorical documents. This President may use a few key phrases that pander to the religious right.
He may discuss global warming and pollution in order to pander to the Democrats. He might even do this with a veiled nod to Al Gore. I can see him using a phrase such as "This year, many Americans became aware of the issue of global warming. Some of the media's efforts to bring this issue to light were truthful, and others were inconveniently disingenuous." Man, I hope he says that. That will make my day. I know what you're thinking: Chad got an advance copy of the speech. But I assure you, I didn't.
I love to look for those crazy phrases such as the "axis of evil" or the "Author of Liberty." Those make me roll my eyes and try to figure them out.
Let's face it: Bush's speechwriters are no slouches. Even if a person hates Bush, he or she can't hate his speeches. I admit that he isn't the most talented person to deliver those great speeches, but he is competent. He may not be a Bill Clinton, but he's as good as a Richard Nixon. His speeches aren't where he screws up; it's those darn question and answer sessions that get him. An extemporaneous speaker, he isn't, but he can pretty much keep to a script, unlike someone like, well, John Kerry?
The Real Fun is in the Pudding
So I do like to read the speeches and analyze them, but I enjoy the spectacle of the event even more. I can wait to see what Nancy Pelosi does. As the Speaker of the House, she is in a prominent position during the speech, and I wonder what she will do. I wonder what the rest of the Democrats will do, too.
I doubt they will snub the President, especially Nancy Pelosi and those that have Presidential aspirations in 2008. Don't look for Clinton and Obama to remain seated when the President says that we can win in Iraq. I'm not so sure about the rest of the House Democrats, though. They will probably be up and down in contrast to the Republicans, who will be up at every important phrase. Even though a lot of the Republicans are distancing themselves from Bush, Trent Lott will be busy making sure that no one in his party sides with the Democrats. I wouldn't be surprised if he will carry a paddle around the Congress to bop wayward Republicans on the head or heiny if they refuse to stand when the President mentions privatizing Social Security.
But therein lies the anticipated problem of tonight's address, too. I don't expect that the President is going to mention any of those extremely controversial topics. He could do it last year, of course, because his party had the majority and was still backing him. This time, I imagine he will play it safe. He still has to talk about Iraq and the troop surge that he's trying to get going, but I doubt he will say anything about more tax cuts or how the war in Iraq has made us safer. I imagine he will mention something about al Qaeda pulling out of Baghdad as evidence that his proposals are working, but I don't see too much controversial in the speech.
Making a Few Difficult Choices
So the extent of my enjoyment is going to be to see whether Pelosi can keep from rolling her eyes when the President says "We will work with the Democratically controlled Congress to win the war in Iraq!" Because he will, you know. It's his first time addressing this hostile body called the Democratic Congress, and he will have to be cautious. He will have to make himself look bi-partisan. Even though he has been one of the most polarizing President I can remember, he will have to pretend that he's not. He may even become a "compassionate conservative" once again. He used that phrase to get elected and then quickly dropped it when he realized that it was the religious conservatives that would form his base. But I imagine now we will start to see a President who goes back to forming coalitions. He has to stick to his guns on Iraq or else his legacy will be lost, but on these other issues, I imagine he will have to work with the Democrats.
He can always just veto everything, but that puts a real strain on his legacy, too. No, I imagine that he will have to do some deals. I don't see Dick Cheney doing it very well, but I think Bush can do it if he tries hard. He's been on the playground before, and with someone his size, he has three options: 1) Play nice and compromise. 2) Get beat up and deal with it. 3) Get his father in to fight his battles for him. Well, the last one isn't really an option now, so I expect that we'll see Bush either making friends or getting stomped. The Democrats are ready, too. They may play it safe tonight and fulfill their role as supporter of the Union, but I think they're also going to look for Bush for mess up. And then it will be no more Miss Nice Gals.
My Predictions for January 23, 2007
Until that happens, though, I must content myself with what is.
So I predict this tonight:
1. Bush will bring up the issues important to Democrats (global warming, healthcare).
2. He will praise his past policies of tax cuts and keeping America safe (yes, I think he will insist that he has done that.
3. The majority of the Democrats will be gracious and stand when everyone else does.
4. Bush will have to discuss Iraq and will repeat much of his last speech where he announced the need for a surge.
So it won't be that exciting, but I'm still excited about it. Now I just hope I have time to watch it live...
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